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Bakken Monitor — December 2015

  • North Dakota oil production fell from 1.186 million b/d in August to 1.162 million b/d in September, in line with our forecast of 1.153 million b/d
  • Confidential wells overproduced significantly in September, providing further support for our hypothesis that companies intentionally increase early production
  • We increase our forecast to 1.125 million b/d for October (+16,000 b/d on last forecast), though still see a decline of 37,000 b/d as completion levels continue to fall m-o-m
  • Weakening WTI futures prices have seen our forecast of total US LTO production fall to 3.772 million b/d in 2016 (-979,000 b/d y-o-y; -250,000 b/d on last forecast)
  • Despite a lenient redetermination period, some companies still face asset value write-downs
  • Our forecast of a persistent downward trend in production is supported by Continental’s announcement of capex cuts in 4Q2015
  • In light of the IEA’s recovery analysis, we find Continental’s aim of 800,000 boe average ultimate recovery from its 2015 Bakken wells unrealistic

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by Graham Walker // 8 December, 2015

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