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Oil Market Weekly Briefing 14th September 2023

Our free weekly round-up of the latest news in the oil market is below, available to download in PDF format.

  • Brent crude oil has surged by over $5 per barrel to surpass $90/bbl since the start of the month following Saudi and Russia’s extension of production cuts until year-end.

  • Recent US inventory data indicates a small build of 4 million barrels in commercial crude, ending four consecutive weeks of draws. However, inventories are still below the five-year average.

  • EIA revised 2023 and 2024 Brent price forecasts: $84.46/bbl (+$1.84) and $88.22/bbl (+$1.74) due to extended OPEC+ production cuts.

  • EIA projects an average Brent price of $93/bbl in Q4 2023 due to demand exceeding supply. Brent expected to ease to $87/bbl in 2H 2024 due to slowing demand and increased production growth, easing global supply.

  • Iran and Iraq are ramping up production and exports. Iran’s oil production expected to be at 3.4 mb/d in September, still 400k b/d lower than pre-sanctions. A sanction waiver by the US government, releasing a $6 billion Iranian fund as part of a prisoners swap deal combined with current high oil prices could see more Iranian oil exports.

  • India reduces Russian oil as prices above G7 price cap, favouring increased imports from Saudi Arabia.

  • TotalEnergies plans a 200,000 b/d capacity FPSO development for 700 million boe of reserves at Suriname’s Block 58, targeting production in 2028.

  • Latest floater awards show rates continue to rise


by Fay Chen // 14 September, 2023

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