Brent is rising above $90/bbl due to supply constraints, with Saudi Arabia and Russia extending their voluntary cuts of 1.3 mb/d until year-end, and global demand is on the rise. Russian diesel ban contributes to global fuel and oil price surge. Brent currently trading at $93/bbl. Central banks’ unchanged rates have limited price impact.
The EIA projects Brent to average $93/bbl in Q423, and major investment banks like Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Citi, and UBS have raised their forecasts to above $90/bbl, with some even reaching $100/bbl.
Hawkish central banks, geopolitical risks, and trade tensions may increase oil price volatility.
Anticipated demand growth for this year is around 2.28 mb/d, with China contributing 1.65 mb/d and strong Indian demand.
Supply stress is exacerbated by outages in Libya, China, Kazakhstan, a decline in Angola, and reduced seasonal biofuel production.
Non-OPEC countries are seeing some production growth, with Canada increasing production by 180,000 b/d in August and Brazil expected to add nearly 100,000 b/d in September from new fields startups.
Extended OPEC+ cuts could lead to a global supply deficit in 2023, possibly continuing into 2024.
Offshore wind and renewables face cost hurdles, oil firms voice transition challenges.