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Shale Monitor – November 2019 "Fracking Ban" Would See LTO Production Fall c. 40% In First Year

North Dakota's August 2019 output was 1.477 million b/d (+31,000 b/d m-o-m), in line with our 1.471million b/d (+25,000 b/d) forecast. July’s figure of 1.446 million b/d (+21,000 b/d) was also in line with our 1.449 million b/d (+24,000 b/d) forecast. We leave our 2019 total US LTO production growth forecast unchanged at 1.1 million b/d, with annual average production of c. 7.5 million b/d from fracked wells. We see weaker US LTO growth in 2020 at c. 500,000 b/d, mostly from the majors and large integrated companies as the small independents struggle to raise capital. Two big names – Chesapeake and Whiting – are already facing severe distress. With several Democratic contenders for president supporting a ban on fracking, we discuss some of the implications of such a move....

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