- A broad range of US LTO production forecasts from 2.8 million b/d (EIA reference case) to over 6 million b/d (Credit Suisse) by 2020
- US LTO production of 5 million b/d by 2020 still looking unrealistic to us, and to a growing number of experts
- Tight oil production growth, a possible price buffer, offset by MENA supply disruptions and natural declines in non-OPEC countries
- Supply not the main price driver according to our simulations, but any supply disruption or oversupply would most likely exacerbate price volatility rooted in speculation
- EOG reported improved flow rates through new development process, but overall impact on industry remains to be seen
by Alexander Wilk // 5 November, 2013
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