Brent climbs to trouble $80/bbl in September, prompting Trump tweets prior to OPEC’s 23rd September meeting. OPEC and allies refuse to promise more production, seeing Brent rise above $81/bbl post-meeting. Our average Brent forecast for 2018 is largely unchanged and now stands at $72.86/bbl (+$0.19/bbl on previous). We see Brent averaging $75/bbl in 2019 (+$2.36/bbl), but with the market finely balanced between supply and demand risks we expect increased price volatility going forward. Our global demand growth forecast is trimmed further to 1.57 million b/d (-30,000 b/d on previous) as the US-China trade war intensifies. Non-OECD demand may face issues due to a strengthening dollar. For example, we expect Indian demand growth to slow in 2019 despite holding firm in 2018. Our 2018 global supply growth forecast is revised to 1.78 million b/d as we incorporate better visibility of condensate and NGL production. In the wake of the election of President Lopez Obrador in Mexico, we consider Mexico’s prospects to remain relatively bright, despite his disdain for privatisation reforms...