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Oil Market Snapshot – September 2017 OPEC Deal Bears Autumn Fruit As Production Forecasts Fall

Brent has risen to c. $58/bbl in September as IEA demand forecasts increase, while geopolitical risk threatens 500,000 b/d of Iraqi supply. Our demand forecast remains unchanged for 2017, and almost unchanged (+40,000 b/d) for 2018. Hurricane-related demand impacts will be short but sharp, with c. 1 million b/d of US refining capacity still awaiting restart. Refinery situation sees US crude stocks add 15 million bbl so far this month. Widening WTI/Brent spreads encourage US exports, but heavier grades trade at a premium, with average inventory grade becoming lighter. OPEC production was 32.607 million b/d in August, -81,000 b/d m-o-m, as another “OPEC-plus” meeting ended with no extension or new cuts. OPEC can theoretically add 1.7 million b/d in 2018, though 1.05 million b/d – a more practical maximum – would be enough to return to oversupply....

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