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Oil Market Snapshot – October 2017 Brent recovers on Kurdish clashes as "OPEC-plus" deal edges towards extension

Brent has steadily recovered to ultimately breach $60/bbl in October after a sharp sell-off at the end of September from highs of $59.09/bbl. Clashes in the Kurdish region of Iraq have bolstered a more bullish price sentiment stemming from US production being revised lower. Our Brent price forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are raised slightly, while we trim our forecasts for global oil demand growth slightly. US inventories have fallen counter-seasonally in recent weeks, while service companies see Lower 48 activity falling in the fourth quarter. OPEC produced 32.78 million b/d in September, (+88,500 b/d m-o-m) mainly driven by Libya’s Sharara field restart. An extension of the “OPEC-plus” (i.e. OPEC plus Russia et al.) production cut deal to the end of 2018 – which we see as necessary to avoid a return to oversupply – is becoming more likely....

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