Oil Market Snapshot — October 2015

  • Brent traded at $53.86/bbl on 8th October following a short-lived rally, but fell back to $48.13/bbl by 28th October
  • We forecast average Brent price of $53.56/bbl (-$0.52/bbl on previous forecast) for 2015 and $56.60/bbl (+$0.45/bbl) for 2016
  • Low prices have fuelled demand despite lower economic growth forecasts by the IMF, demand growth has almost doubled compared to 2014
  • China’s oil demand remains robust, growing by 0.5 million b/d in the first eight months this year, driven by gasoline, jet fuel and LPG consumption
  • The substantial Zohr gas field was discovered offshore Egypt on 30th August, potentially boosting exploration and development activity
  • Delays and cancellations of non-OPEC projects will extend production declines
  • US LTO producers avoided a credit crunch this month but face tougher lending conditions and declining production throughout 2016
  • OPEC remains committed to its market share strategy despite internal opposition

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