Oil Cover

Oil Market Snapshot – October 2013

  • We revised our average Brent price forecast up marginally to $108.85/bbl for 2013 (+$0.30) and to $105.65/bbl for 2014 (+$0.55), underpinned by our higher oil demand outlook, but partly offset by softened future prices in October and economic growth concerns in the US and the Eurozone
  • Revised EIA GDP prospects have lifted our 2013 oil demand forecast by 134,000 b/d. We now expect demand to grow by 1.1 million b/d for 2013, and by 1.14 million b/d for 2014
  • WTI-Brent spread widened again due to increased US inventories and recurring supply disruptions in Libya, and OPEC crude production dropped below 30 million b/d for the first time in two years
  • Non-OPEC supply growth will reach 1.14 million b/d in 2013, according to OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report, and in 2014 the US may become the largest non-OPEC producer, overtaking Russia (as both PIRA and the IEA assert)

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