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Oil Market Snapshot – May 2018 Saudi Arabia, Russia To Coordinate Production Increase After St. Petersburg Meet

Brent hit $80/bbl this month before retreating sharply to c. $75/bbl as Russia and Saudi Arabia signalled they will compensate for outages in Venezuela and Angola, and sanctions on Iran. Money managers have started profit taking, liquidating some of their heavy net long position. Our average Brent forecast for 2018 now stands at $70.03/bbl (+$1.16/bbl on previous), reflecting recent rallies. Our global demand forecast remains flat at 1.73 million b/d (+10,000 b/d on previous), even as the major agencies see rising prices impacting demand. We consider global economic growth robust enough to withstand rising prices this year. However, US crude and gasoline inventories saw a build in WE May 18th in the run-up to the US driving season – further builds could be cause for concern over demand. Our 2018 global supply growth forecast is revised down to 1.76 million b/d (-210,000 b/d on previous) to incorporate Iranian sanctions and Venezuela’s production issues....

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