Oil Cover

Oil Market Snapshot – May 2013

  • We have revised our Brent oil price projections for 2013 and 2014 down to $106/bbl from $108/bbl and to $104/bbl from $108/bbl, respectively, due to weaker global oil demand projections and expected increases in supply, OECD inventory, and OPEC spare capacity
  • Brent price temporarily fell below $100/bbl in mid-April in the wake of:
    • Below-consensus GDP releases in key regions (EZ, USA and China)
    • A relative appreciation of the US dollar
  • IEA looking excessively bullish on North American LTO and oil sand production growth and OPEC spare capacity expansions, subsequently too bearish on oil prices

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