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Oil Market Snapshot – March 2024

  • In mid March Brent crude surged above $85/bbl for the first time in 11 months due to an improved global demand outlook and Russian refinery outages caused by Ukraine drone attacks. IEA predicts demand surpassing supply if OPEC+ extends cuts through 2024.
  • The Fed kept interest rates unchanged but hinted at three potential rate cuts this year if inflation approaches 2%. They also upgraded the US economic growth forecast from 1.4% to 2.1%, fuelling optimism in oil prices.
  • The Baltimore bridge collapse, caused by a ship collision, may have implications for supply chains and inflation.
  • Our demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised up slightly to stand at 1.67 mb/d, with US and Indian revised upwards.
  • EIA raised up its Brent forecast to average $87.00/bbl (+$4.58/bbl) for 2024 and $84.80/bbl (+$5.32/bbl) for 2025 respectively citing OPEC+ extending production cuts.

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by Fay Chen // 24 April, 2024

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