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Oil Market Snapshot – June 2018 OPEC, allies, agree to be "less compliant"

Brent at $77.37/bbl on 27th June, up from $73/bbl in the wake of the OPEC and allies agreement return to 100% compliance with existing production targets in the near future. The market apparently sees the boost as too small to counterbalance losses from Iranian sanctions, Venezuela’s collapse and other declines. We expect OPEC and allies to gradually achieve 60-80% of the 1 million b/d nominal increase in phases. Our average Brent forecast for 2018 now stands at $73/bbl (+$2.97/bbl on previous) on continued futures strength. Our global demand growth forecast remains robust at 1.76 million b/d (+30,000 b/d on previous), with US GDP growth underpinning OECD demand, withstanding oil price rises this year. Our 2018 global supply growth forecast is revised down to 1.53 million b/d (-230,000 b/d on previous) to better reflect Iranian sanctions and Venezuela’s production issues. US production is firming up in line with forecasts as North Dakota approaches a new record level of production, but lack of pipelines may impact runaway Permian growth. As the price recovery cements itself, we turn to South East Asia as a potential demand growth centre....

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