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Oil Market Snapshot – June 2016 Searching for Balance

As the dollar gains and inventories swell, can the market balance by year end? Uncertainty surrounding Brexit caused Brent to fall sharply from the $52/bbl mark it reached early in June to around $48/bbl at the time of writing as the dollar strengthened against the pound and Euro. We now expect demand and supply to balance by the end of 2016, pushing prices higher in 2017 if the market contango weakens. The IEA sees India and China providing almost half of global demand growth in 2017. Non-OPEC states continue to retreat while North Dakota sees its largest single month oil production drop to date. We project US LTO production to decline by more than 500,000 b/d for both 2016 and 2017 if conditions remain unchanged. Outages in Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya as well as the Canadian wildfire resulted in supply disruptions of 3 million b/d last month. OPEC expect demand for their crude to exceed their ability to produce it in 2H2016, but high inventories will still cap prices. As a result, we see almost no growth in global supply in 2016 and minimal growth in 2017.

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