Oil Cover

Oil Market Snapshot – June 2014

  • Brent price rallied towards a 9-month high ($115/bbl) over concerns of potential oil supply outages from Iraq, before receding to the $113/bbl level
  • Political risk premium of $5-6/bbl breaking the very low level of volatility in the past few months
  • We have revised our Short-Term Oil Price forecast upwards to $108.33/bbl (+$1.17/bbl) for 2014 and $105.25/bbl (+$1.89/bbl) for 2015, based on concerns of Iraqi supply disruptions
  • US condensate exports given the green light; potential for 300-500,000 b/d addition to international markets
  • North Sea is likely to increase production this year reversing the declining trend; average break-even price stands at $61.74/bbl, but spending on new field developments could rise to $156 billion by 2020

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