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Oil Market Snapshot – July 2018 Brent corrects by 6.9%, but potential for undersupplied market remains in 2019

Brent sees 6.9% decline on 11th July, before recovering to c. $74/bbl mid-month. Money managers take profits and reduce record net long position, using announcement of re-opening Libyan exports as catalyst. Our average Brent forecast for 2018 now stands at $73.20/bbl (+$0.20/bbl on previous), broadly unchanged. Our global demand growth forecast is trimmed slightly but remains robust at 1.66 million b/d (-100,000 b/d on previous). Chinese demand is potentially threatened by a slowing economy and trade war with the US, but will still be relatively strong, while Indian demand is surging. Our 2018 global supply growth forecast is revised higher to 1.61 million b/d (+80,000 b/d on previous), incorporating production increases from Russia. We see the market undersupplied in both 2018 and 2019 as demand remains firm in the face of higher prices, discounting the threat of a trade war....

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