Brent has exceeded $71/bbl intraday on January 25th, the highest level since May 2015. However, record net longs from money managers underpin the possibility of a correction. Our global demand growth forecast for 2018 is revised slightly higher as the IMF upgrades global economic growth forecasts. Our global supply growth forecast for 2018 is revised higher, as our 2018 US LTO growth outlook moves substantially upward. Despite flat global capex, the offshore sector should see increased exploration activity this year led by West Africa. OPEC may need to accommodate this growth, at least until Saudi Aramco’s partial IPO. We see the supply/demand balance leading to net stock draws in 2018, but expect stock builds in 2019 if the OPEC-plus production agreement ends....