- Brent has risen and stabilised at around $60/bbl since the second half of February from a low of $45.13/bbl in January
- Traders are more bullish on the back of significant E&P capex cuts and declining number of US rigs
- We have increased slightly our demand growth estimates up to 1 million b/d and 1.37 million b/d for 2015 and 2016 respectively, mainly driven by the low price level
- Non-OPEC production will continue its role in providing supply growth, led by North America, but at lower levels than 2014
- Canadian oil sand output will be largely unaffected by the current price level for the next few years. We forecast crude oil equivalent production of 2.13 million b/d in 2015, (+120,000 b/d y-o-y)
- We estimate Bakken LTO to grow by only 44,000 b/d in 2015 if WTI based on WTI at $55/bbl and current completion rates
- Our Brent forecast has been increased in 2015 and 2016 by 2.1% and 2.9% respectively from our January forecast
- Offshore drilling prospects appear weak to us, particularly in mature areas like the North Sea, while Brazil is facing uncertainty over the Petrobras corruption scandal
by Graham Walker // 5 March, 2015
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