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Oil Market Snapshot – April 2018 Angola and Venezuela's "Involuntary Cuts" Aid OPEC's Compliance, Raise Capacity Questions

Brent reached $75/bbl on 23rd April as Vienna Group compliance improved significantly, due to poor Venezuelan and Angolan production performance. The dollar and oil price have decoupled driven by a strengthening US economy. Our April price forecast sees Brent averaging $68.87/bbl in 2018 (+$0.97/bbl). We leave our global demand growth forecast for 2018 broadly unchanged, while in our first forecast for 2019 sees similar demand. Our global supply growth forecast for 2018 is slightly higher. We question the EIA LTO production outlook, which sees strong growth through 2050. Despite continuing depressed day rates and low utilisation, the floater market is showing some signs of recovery in demand. Spare capacity in OPEC may have been eroded in the price downturn, limiting the organisation’s ability to respond to rising prices....

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