Oil Cover

Oil Market Snapshot – April 2014

  • We revised our price forecast to $106.44/bbl (+$1.04) for 2014 and to $102.92/bbl (-$0.56) for 2015
  • IMF GDP growth forecasts support robust demand outlook of 1.11 million b/d for 2014 and 1.35 million b/d for 2015; only dampened slightly by slowing Chinese economy
  • World oil production fell by c. 1.2 million b/d m-o-m in March 2014; OPEC is responsible for 860,000 b/d
  • Saudi production cutbacks added to recurring OPEC supply disruptions
  • IEA slashed its non-OPEC production growth forecast by 250,000 b/d to 1.5 million b/d for 2014
  • US crude inventories at record high (399 million bbl) on 25th April, adding downward price pressure
  • Brent volatility decreased in 1Q 2014 but may rise yet again if Ukrainian crisis worsens

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