Nuclear or New Clear Iran

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Nuclear or New Clear Iran? Perspectives on Iran’s Oil Future

Iran’s government claims it can raise crude production by c. 1.2 million b/d within 3 months. We envision three production scenarios, depending on which, Iran's crude capacity could range from 3.5 million b/d to more than 5 million b/d by 2020. Meanwhile, international sanctions are not the only constraining factor; Iran would also need to inject around 1.3 million boe/d of gas into its oil fields for the next five years to achieve its most ambitious production estimates. As such, we see CAPEX requirements for the existing line of future developments to be more than $76 billion between 2015 and 2020.

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