Petrologica's projections last November of a triple dip economic cycle with a much lower oil demand profile has been almost echoed by the latest assessment by the International Monetary Fund. Oil prices may rise rather than fall again after 2012 due to supply side constraints and OPEC management. The downward correction to economic growth prospects justifies OPEC caution over demand growth. OPEC is reluctant to commit hundreds of billions of dollars in a new spare production capacity buffer to defend consumer countries against higher prices.