- Global LNG demand has been broadly flat since 2011
- China and the US aggressively expanded LNG import capacity but in the process may have created asset bubbles instead of structural LNG demand
- Average regas capacity utilisation between 2011 and 2015 remained weak
- Many new liquefaction projects have now been cancelled as the expected demand growth failed to materialise
- More than 100 mtpa of liquefaction capacity remains under construction, suggesting significant unrequired capacity by 2020, even when assuming robust annual demand growth and LNG plant utilisation at its historic average
- LNG prices across different basins have converged, limiting the scope for arbitrage and reducing voyage times and LNGC shipping demand
- There is a risk of considerable oversupply in the LNG charter market if plant utilisation remains around the historical average or below
by Alexander Wilk // 24 June, 2016
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