- US tight oil production and infrastructure debottlenecking turned US into net exporter of petroleum products
- However, rising diesel demand and falling gasoline demand in US and EU member states (EU-28) will destroy arbitrage as US CAFE unfolds
- EU-28 will become increasingly dependent on Russian middle distillates supply
- This year’s winter to see a tight middle distillates market in EU-28, in our view
- Asia likely to emerge as swing supplier for gasoline and middle distillates on the back of further capacity expansion programmes and low-margin domestic markets
- Until that time, however, EU-28 will have to compete with Asia and South America for middle distillates cargoes
by Alexander Wilk // 20 September, 2013
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