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Bakken Monitor – May 2018 EIA Sees Bakken Recovering 89% of Technically Recoverable Resources by 2050

North Dakota's February oil production held firm at 1.175 million b/d (-1,000 b/d m-o-m), below our forecast. We see production flat again in March, having increased our decline rate for older wells. The EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2018 makes a long term forecast for US oil production out to 2050. We question some of the optimistic assumptions that underpin this analysis, specifically expectations of ever decreasing costs and increasing recovery. The forecast would see over 60% of Lower 48 onshore technically recoverable resources produced by 2050, with Bakken and Permian recovery both above 85%. The WTI Midland-Cushing differential is now at $12/bbl as a lack of takeaway capacity strands Permian oil....

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