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Bakken Monitor – January 2018 LTO Unchained: Strong Production Growth Expected as Majors Look to US

North Dakota's oil production increased to 1.195 million b/d (+9,000 b/d m-o-m) in November, in line with our forecast of 1.199 million b/d. We forecast December production slightly lower as winter weather hampers completions, but expect a new record level of production some time in early 2018. We have updated our full US LTO production forecast model to individually model the four major shale basins in the US. For these four basins, we see production growing significantly in 2018, with further gains elsewhere. As we await 4Q17 earnings for E&Ps, the major service companies have already reported further – but falling – losses and increasing revenue from North America. We expect that continued loose capital markets will encourage US LTO to meet or exceed our growth forecast, with the “cash required per barrel” metric supporting our view....

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