Bakken-Monitor-December-2016


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Bakken Monitor – December 2016 Want an LTO Boom? Send More Cash.

US LTO operators will need more access to capital if a recovery is to begin in 2017. North Dakota's oil production fell to 971,658 b/d in September from 981,038 b/d in August, below our forecast. September did not see the recovery we anticipated from older wells, as we understand that well maintenance is being postponed to after OPEC’s meeting. We forecast lower production in October as sources suggest older wells will continue to under produce due to delayed maintenance work. In overviewing third quarter results for the sector, we expect that $7.43 billion capex is needed to hold 2017 North Dakota production at YE 2016 levels. Based on current well parameters, North Dakota needs 1134 completed wells to hold production steady, though production would flatten by 4Q2017 at current rates. OPEC’s production agreement will have a limited positive effect on LTO production in the early part of 2017, but if prices hold up over the year, 2018 should see a stronger recovery.

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