Oil Market Snapshot – November 2016 November Fireworks

OPEC heads to Vienna in search of a deal, while Trump beats the odds in America Brent tumbled early in November as markets started doubting an OPEC agreement but regained losses on progressing negotiations. Our reference case average Brent price forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are below $45/bbl and below $55/bbl, respectively, with potential upside of $14/bbl for 2018 on a very successful agreement. At time of writing, OPEC is debating an agreement to cut as much as c. 1.25 million b/d, but previous deals suggest actual cuts may be just 0.66 million b/d. Post-deal, 1.47 million b/d in extra OPEC peak capacity is due to come on-stream by 2018. Despite strong rhetoric, the implications of Donald Trump’s surprise election win for American energy are unclear. Our global demand forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are 1.36 million b/d (-90,000 b/d m-o-m) and 1.41 million b/d (+10,000 b/d m-o-m), respectively. India and China continue to drive crude demand as their refiners look to the international petroleum products export market. Capex cuts are likely to continue in 2017 whilst major companies are struggling to maintain production.

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