Bakken Monitor – May 2017

  • North Dakota's oil production rose to 1.034 million b/d (+53,000 b/d m-o-m) in February as the remaining weather-bound production returned, in line with our forecast of 1.023 million b/d
  • We see March production of 1.038 million b/d (+4,000 b/d) as completions hold firm, keeping production flat
  • Earnings season has begun, with Hess posting a smaller quarterly loss y-o-y, which sets expectations across the industry
  • Companies still in the red call into question the optimistic breakeven price analyses seen across the media
  • Our average US LTO production forecast for 2017 is revised upward to 4.995 million b/d (+89,000 b/d y-o-y, +175,000 b/d on previous forecast)
  • We examine how revisions to EIA data impact our forecasts, and compare our North Dakota forecasting record with the EIA’s

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