Bakken Monitor – March 2017

  • North Dakota's oil production crashed to 942,455 b/d in December from 1.034 million b/d in November (a record -92,000 b/d m-o-m) as harsh winter weather shut in wells, well below our 1.023 million b/d forecast
  • We forecast production of 931,000 b/d in January (-11,000 b/d m-o-m) reflecting statements by North Dakota’s government that poor weather continued
  • If all of the shut-in production returns in January, however, we may see production slightly above 1 million b/d
  • Exxon indicates a shift towards shale production, committing a third of its 2017 capex budget to the Bakken and Permian while targeting 20% compound annual boe production growth through to 2025
  • We update our US LTO forecast to average 4.8 million b/d (+200,000 b/d on last forecast) based on company reports that see capex budgets up 40% on average
  • We see total annual LTO production flat y-o-y, rising in line with the IEA’s forecast of c. 500,000 b/d December to December, counteracting 2016’s decline
  • Continuing last month’s examination of decline rates against cumulative production in the Bakken, current evidence strongly suggests average EUR of 1 million boe/well is unattainable

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