Bakken Monitor – February 2017

  • North Dakota's oil production fell to 1.034 million b/d in November from 1.44 million b/d in October (-10,000 b/d m-o-m), in line with our forecast of 1.030 million b/d
  • The boost to production from wells restarted in October after extensive completion work by Whiting amongst others wore off and returned to the previous decline rate
  • We forecast production of 1.023 million b/d in December (-11,000 b/d m-o-m) as North Dakota continues to complete wells below the rate needed to replace production
  • Curve fitting techniques provide a base case for average estimated ultimate recoveries in the Bakken of a maximum of c. 375,000 barrels of oil per well in 2016
  • Estimates for US LTO capex suggest production bottoming out before a return to growth in 2H2017, confirmed by the first few indications from companies
  • Trump’s “America First” energy plan is slowly taking shape, but difficult trade-offs will have to be made

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